Trade of The Week: Centamin Sentiment

Not so long ago I edited a book (not this one) for a guy who postulated that one sure way to make money in the markets is to bet against the recommendations of a particular investment bank; not straight away, but a few weeks later.

It is in this context that I re-read this article, dated 15 October, in which Goldman Sachs cited Centamin as a favourite stock that offered “inexpensive exposure to a high growth gold asset”. Well, you may have seen what happened to the Centamin share price this morning, and here’s an InterTrader chart to remind you:

Centamin Share Price

Yes, the share price more than halved within an hour. And at one point the bid-ask spread was quoted by some spread betting companies as wide as 16.9-45.1, down from a previous day’s price of about 100.I was lucky enough to have sold half of my SIPP holding in Centamin a week ago at 99, and possibly even luckier that my other half stopped-out this morning at a respectable (under the circumstances) 87p. These lucky escapes are what makes this my “trade of the week”.If you had a Centamin position in a spread betting account, I do hope that you had a profit-securing guaranteed stop order in place to protect you. I admit to taking a long punt on the gapped-down price this morning, at a price of 65, just before it gapped-down again to less than 40. So I was glad of my guaranteed stop order at 53. Remember that the best guaranteed stop orders are provided by Capital Spreads, InterTrader, IG… and possibly Spread Co and SpreadEx.

If you’re wondering why the price of Centamin shares fell so far so fast this morning, it’s because an Egypt court rules Centamin contract void on the day after the Sukari Gold Mine Site Visit October 2012.

Two Steps to Better Spread Betting:

1) Buy the Better Spread Betting Book
2) Sign up with Capital Spreads, IG, ETX Capital, or Spread Co

Disclaimer: this posting is for general education only; it is not trading advice.